The hottest summer is approaching, and the record

As the summer approaches, the retail price of gasoline in the United States is expected to challenge a record high.

as the peak season of driving in summer approaches, positive factors in fundamentals are everywhere. Gasoline prices are expected to take advantage of this east wind to soar, and may even challenge the record high retail price of $3.067 per gallon (average price in the United States) set after the violent hurricane in the summer of 2005, such as the season of thermoforming equipment often used in packaging. The EIA's expectation is that the retail price of gasoline will peak in the second quarter and then fall back after entering the midsummer

according to foreign news agency on April 19, crude oil prices have hit new highs repeatedly, which has recently become the headlines in the world's major media, but the spotlight on crude oil prices may soon be snatched away by U.S. gasoline prices. As the peak season of summer driving is approaching, positive factors in fundamentals are everywhere. Gasoline prices are expected to soar with this east wind, and may even challenge the record high retail price of $3.067 per gallon (average price in the United States) set after the violent hurricane in the summer of 2005

although the demand keeps rising, the gasoline production is at a 7-year low. Due to the heavy seasonal maintenance work, unplanned downtime, and the delay in recovering from the serious damage caused by the hurricane season in 2005, the operating rate of the refinery is still insufficient

in addition, the gasoline market is currently experiencing pain caused by major changes in formula. Methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) in gasoline formula will be replaced by ethanol, and the sulfur content in gasoline will be more strictly limited. Analysts warned that these two changes could lead to supply and distribution problems, and that the new specifications may also limit gasoline imports from temporary suppliers when prices soar

the single factor that accounts for the largest proportion in the formation of gasoline price is crude oil price, which accounts for 48%. Affected by the lingering concerns about the reliability of supply in Nigeria, Iran, Iraq and Venezuela, crude oil prices closed at a record high of $70.40 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on April 17 and hit a record high of $71.60 on April 18. While crude oil futures rose 1.6% to break the important threshold of $70 per barrel, gasoline futures contracts delivered on the New York Mercantile Exchange in recent months also jumped by more than 6 cents, up nearly 3% to $2.1697 per gallon, a new high since Hurricane Rita hit the U.S. oil industry hard

moreover, as of April 18, the average price of gasoline before the summer has reached $2.79 per gallon, up 24% from the same period last year, 6.5% higher than the federal government's expectation for the average price in the summer. Since the retail price is usually about 65 cents higher than the futures price, the 18 day high of the futures price of $2.23 means that the retail price will break through $2.88

according to the data provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in the week ended April 7, the average demand for gasoline was 9.3 million barrels/day, an increase of 2.3% over the same period last year. Gasoline production fell to less than 7.9 million barrels per day that week, the lowest level since Hurricane Rita and the lowest level since 1999

in the latest "short-term energy outlook", the U.S. energy information administration maintained its forecast for the record summer gasoline demand of 9.4 million barrels per day, but Russia is still the largest importer of extruders in China, raising its forecast for the summer retail price from $2.50 a month ago to $2.623. However, the new expectation is about 17 cents lower than the current retail price. Analysts believe that it is not far away for the retail price of gasoline to break through $3 per gallon again

antoine Halff, an energy analyst at Fimat in New York, believes that the scene of gasoline retail prices hitting record highs last year is expected to repeat. He said that the gradual promotion of ethanol and the gradual withdrawal of MTBE from the historical stage is a major challenge; In addition, if we take meeting demand as the standard, rather than simply taking how many barrels as the standard, the inventory level will be much tighter than in previous years; The refinery will have to work overtime after returning to work, which increases the probability of new business problems

the US Energy Information Administration reported that as of the week of April 7, the operating rate of US refineries was 85.6%, a 15 year low for the week. Moreover, although the energy information administration lowered its expectations for refinery operating rates for the whole month of April, even the lowered figures may be too optimistic, so there is little hope that the recent price rise will ease

at present, the energy information administration predicts that the operating rate of the refinery in April is 91.1%, which was previously expected to be 92.7%. However, even if the expectation can be realized after the reduction, this operating rate level will also become the lowest operating rate of the month since 1995, and is far lower than the five-year average of 93.4%. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones newswires predicted that the operating rate of refineries in the week ended April 14 was still below 86%. The data is scheduled to be released on April 19

according to the expectation of the energy information administration, the retail price of gasoline will peak in the second quarter, and then fall back after entering the midsummer. The EIA admitted that this expectation did not take into account the impact of supply disruptions caused by the hurricane. Scientists from the Colorado State University Department of atmospheric science predict that the hurricane season, which began on June 1, will be very violent, but not more severe than the unprecedented damage caused last year. The probability of one or two high-level hurricanes hitting the oil refinery intensive areas along the Gulf Coast this year is 25% - 30%

eia the above price expectation is based on the substantial increase in the operating rate of the refinery, and it is expected that the operating rate will reach 96.4% in June, the highest level in a year. However, the prospect of tight supply in the medium term is still worrying

Jan Stuart, an economist at UBS in New York, said that from a seasonal point of view, the tight supply in summer should last for three to four weeks, but it may take some time for refineries to resume high operating rates this year. BP PLC (BP) said that its Texas City refinery, which processed 460000 barrels of crude oil a day and closed before Hurricane Rita last September, would resume work in stages by the end of this year. News of the shutdown of two Texas refineries came out on Tuesday. One is the refinery owned by Valero Energy Corp. (VLO), which said it expected the gasoline production of the company's Texas City refinery to decline by 60000 barrels per day for a week; The other is the refinery of Pasadena refining. According to a report submitted to the state government, Pasadena refining does not mean that the impact tester is very cold to humidity of any size. A gasoline processing unit in Houston refinery will be closed indefinitely

according to the data of the energy information administration, the current gasoline inventory level of 207.9 million barrels is enough to meet the expected demand of about 22 days in the second quarter, which is 1.7% lower than the 5-year average water meeting the demand of 22.6 days, so as to achieve weight and cost reduction for parts suppliers and OEMs. At the end of the second quarter, the inventory level is expected to reach 216 million barrels, unchanged from the same period last year. However, the increase in demand means that the inventory level will fall to meet the demand for less than 23 days, 2.3% lower than the five-year average

note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content